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Australia & New Zealand macro, often with a cross-country lens. Typically short and sweet. Chart driven. Ex central banker and market economist.
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ONLY CHARTS
Edition #51
1. New Zealand’s composite PMI, including the new orders component, rose solidly in February…
2. …and provides further evidence of improving economic conditions in early 2024.
3. The improvement in the kiwi PMI is consistent with a similar jump in firms’ reported own activity in the QSBO survey.
4. With unemployment rates near 50-year lows and Australia’s terms of trade not far off all-time highs, the aggregate budget position of Australian governments should look very different to this…
5. Markets are not pricing greater than a 50% chance of an RBA rate cut until the August Board meeting…
6. …same for the RBNZ.
7. Markets are still toying with the idea of a Fed rate cut in June - 16bps of cuts priced in for that meeting - but expectations for cumulative Fed policy easing this year have been wound back significantly amid signs of sticky inflation and solid labour market outcomes.
8. Residential construction starts in China remained very low in early 2024 alongside weak home sales.
The unadjusted PMI?
What is the composite pmi in your first chart? I wanted to directly compare with rental growth, it looks a bit familiar