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Australia’s labour force report for July was soft but that is in the context of recent monthly volatility in the key aggregates.
Monthly data have been volatile, in part because of the impact of the the Middle East situation on hiring patterns.
We also caution that there has been A LOT GOING ON with the labour force survey so we remain a bit concerned that this has introduced a bit more noise into the monthly outcomes than usual.
The ABS has been transitioning the Labour Force Survey to new modernised systems and questionnaire since April. The May and June surveys each rotated 2 of the 8 sample cohorts instead of the usual 1 group. For July, 2 cohorts were rotated in and 3 were rotated out after answering the June survey, leaving 7 groups instead of the usual 8.
The ABS has also adjusted the influence of some respondents in NSW and Victoria in recent months:
“For the June 2026 data release, the ABS adjusted the influence of around 2,700 respondents (approximately 6% of June sample) in one rotation group in New South Wales and Victoria. This was done by using adjusted weights in line with our well-established methods to ensure that the Labour Force data is representative of the population.
After receiving the data for July, the ABS reviewed these adjustments in conjunction with the additional month’s data. It was determined that the weighting adjustment for New South Wales was to be removed for June and not applied in July. Extensive investigation into this rotation group with the additional month showed that ongoing adjustment was not required. Through applying the same process to Victoria, it was determined that Victoria data in the one rotation group did require a weighting adjustment for July, following on from the weighting adjustment applied to the June data.
The ABS will continue to monitor these rotation groups as they continue to progress through their time in our survey.”
1. Australia’s unemployment rate rose 0.03ppts to 4.46% in July (rounding up to 4.5%). The H1 average was 4.33%.
Measured employment fell 15.8k m/m in July following a rise of +118.4k m/m over May and June combined.
The employment-to-population ratio declined 0.17ppts to 63.87% in July which was close to the H1 average of 63.89%.
