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1. New Zealand’s Q2 labour force survey was a bit mixed but indicators of spare capacity softened in the quarter. Ample spare capacity remains in the kiwi labour market.
New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose +0.2ppts to 5.6% in Q2 - higher than the RBNZ’s May MPS forecast - and the Q1 outcome was revised slightly higher. The broader labour underutilisation rate rose sharply.
The employment-to-population ratio rose modestly in unrounded terms as employment (+0.5% q/q) rose slightly faster than working-age population growth (+0.4% q/q).
2. Changes in New Zealand’s unemployment rate have been broadly consistent with its historical relationship with GDP growth.
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