ONLY CHARTS #568

Aus labour force, Aus SEEK advertised salaries, Aus flash PMI, NZ SEEK job ads, NZ trade balance

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Australia’s labour force report for April was weak, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% and employment declining. Uncertainty related to the Middle East conflict may have played a role, with firms reporting softer hiring in business surveys.

We highlight below, however, that large (measured) swings in unemployment and employment for 15-24 year old females played a significant role in the aggregate outcomes in April.

Some of this volatility could be related to the survey reference period (29 March to 11 April) fully capturing the Easter break (3-6 April).

Consequently, some caution in interpretation is warranted.

Regardless, the RBA is firmly on hold in the near-term (which was already likely the case - see RBA Tracker).

The ABS has started transitioning the Labour Force Survey to new modernised systems, with the April incoming rotation group being the first rotation group on the new platform and questionnaire. The ABS noted that there are no notable impacts from the transition in the April data (though we’ve heard that one in the past). The May 2026 labour force survey will have 2 incoming rotation groups (as opposed to 1 normally).

1. Australia’s unemployment rate rose 0.2ppts to 4.5% in April (in unrounded terms it increased from 4.28% to 4.49%).

Measured employment in Australia declined 18.6k m/m in April, resulting in a fall of 0.2ppts in the employment-to-population ratio to 63.7%.

2. The unemployment rate in April was clearly higher than the RBA’s May SMP track.