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1. Victoria’s general government operating budget balance is forecast to remain in surplus over the next 4 years but the expected surpluses have narrowed since the mid-year update in December.
Those are the headline numbers the Victoria Government wants you to focus on.
In our view a better gauge of the state’s budget balance is the cash balance, in part because it captures capital spending.
On this basis, the budget is expected to remain firmly in deficit, including for the broader non-financial public sector.
2. Victoria’s general government cash budget deficit is forecast to be ~1% of gross state product (GSP) in each of the next 4 years.
The expected budget deficit for the non-financial public sector is again ~2.4% of GSP in 2026-27 and then roughly 1.5% of GSP, on average, over the following 4 years.
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