ONLY CHARTS #498

Aus forecasts, Aus capacity to pay for housing, Short-term yields, US job openings, NSW housing transfer duties

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1. Upon the release of the RBA’s updated forecasts we highlighted (here) that the near-term upgrades to the Bank’s trimmed mean inflation outlook now mean there are clearer downside risks to those forecasts.

In fact, the Bank’s H1 2026 trimmed mean inflation forecast is higher than ALL of the market economist forecasts submitted to the Bank (including ours).

2. But what would market economists know, their inflation forecasts haven’t exactly been covered in glory in recent years.