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1. New Zealand’s Q4 CPI inflation was +0.6% q/q and +3.1% y/y.
This was higher than our nowcast of +0.4% q/q and the RBNZ’s +0.2% q/q forecast in the November MPS.
Stronger-than-expected price rises for some tradables prices and new housing purchase accounted for most of the upside surprise relative to our nowcast.
The largest contributions to quarterly headline inflation were: petrol and other vehicle fuels (+0.1ppts); air transport (+0.15ppts); telecommunications (+0.11ppts); utilities (+0.06ppts) and accommodation (+0.1ppts). Some of these are seasonal.
Our measures of quarterly trimmed mean and weighted median inflation moderated further in Q4, suggesting that underlying inflation remained contained (see below).
2. In seasonally adjusted terms, the CPI rose +0.8% q/q in Q4.
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