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ONLY CHARTS #476

NZ Q3 GDP

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Antipodean Macro
Dec 18, 2025
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1. New Zealand’s Q3 GDP rose +1.1% q/q following a downwardly revised decline of 1.0% q/q in Q2. Output rose in 14 of 16 industries.

Output rose +2.0% q/q in goods-producing industries (Q2: -2.8% q/q) and +1.0% in primary industries (Q2: -0.4% q/q). Real services output rose +0.8% q/q after falling just 0.1% q/q in Q2.

GDP rose +1.3% on a year-ended basis.

Q3 GDP growth was stronger than both market expectations and the RBNZ’s November forecast (+0.4% q/q and +0.8% y/y).

As expected, the seasonal adjustment balancing item did not have much influence of measured growth in GDP in Q3.

2. While the production-based measure of GDP is the headline measure for New Zealand, the levels of both the expenditure- and income-based measures are currently much higher.

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