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Australia’s labour market report for November was soft. While the unemployment rate was unchanged, measured employment and the participation rate both declined. The ABS noted collection issues for one survey cohort in NSW:
“There were operational challenges in the collection of data for one NSW rotation group which was in its second month of the survey. This had an impact on data quality for the affected rotation group, which represented about 1/8th of the NSW sample. As a result, the ABS adjusted the weighting for this rotation group to ensure the quality of the overall results, effectively removing this group from the calculation of the labour force estimates. The ABS has closely analysed the results after this adjustment and are satisfied that there are no residual data quality concerns for the NSW results.”
1. Australia’s unemployment rate was unchanged at just over 4.3% in November.
Measured employment declined 21.3k m/m, resulting in a 0.2ppt fall in the employment-to-population ratio to 63.83% (5 of 8 states & territories, including NSW, recorded lower emp-to-pop ratios in November.)
The participation rate also fell 0.2ppts to 66.7%.
2. The RBA have pencilled in ~4.35% for their Q4 quarter-average unemployment rate forecast so it is currently tracking in line.
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