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A soft to weak Aussie labour market report for September. While part of the rise in the unemployment rate in September could be normal monthly volatility, the trend has clearly been higher.
1. Australia’s unemployment rate rose +0.2ppts to 4.46% in September and has now risen 0.5ppts this year.
Both the employment-to-population ratio and participation rate have fallen in recent months.
Measured employment rose +14.9k m/m in September, resulting in a slight decline in the employment-to-population ratio to just under 64.0%. The participation rate rose 0.1ppts to 67.0%, partly retracing the decline in August.
2. The average unemployment rate in Q3 was broadly in line with the RBA’s August SMP forecast of 4.3% but the monthly profile is now clearly higher.
The odds of a November cash rate cut just went back up materially, particularly for a Board that has so far leant heavily towards the full-employment part of its dual mandate.
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