ONLY CHARTS #351

Aus labour market, Aus population & migration

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1. Measured employment in Australia declined 2.5k m/m in May, resulting in a small tick lower in the employment-to-population ratio to 64.25% alongside a similar fall in the participation rate to 67.0%.

Measured employment has been volatile in recent months. The single best indicator from the labour force release in our view is the unemployment rate, which was little changed at 4.06%.

Looking through the noise, the jobless rate and employment-to-population ratio have broadly tracked sideways for 6-9 months.

In contrast to the broadly flat aggregate unemployment rate, the jobless rate for 15-64 year olds in Australia has recently picked up.

2. The unemployment rate has been tracking below the RBA’s May SMP forecast.