Only Charts

Edition #16

1. Australia’s unemployment rate was unchanged in December at 3.9%

2. Aussie employment fell 65k m/m in December following two very strong monthly prints. Employment rose a strong 0.7% q/q in Q4 2023, though it rose a more modest 0.4% over the 3 months to December

3. The fall in employment dragged the employment-to-population ratio and participation rates 0.4ppts lower in December

4. Part-time employment has been rising for several months in Australia as full-time employment growth has stagnated. Consequently, average hours worked have been falling

5. Total hours worked in Australia declined 0.4% q/q on a labour force basis. If replicated in the national accounts measure, this should support another moderate rise in measured labour productivity

6. Growth in Australia’s 15+ population remained strong at the end of 2023 at 3.0% y/y

7. The share of 15-24 year old Australians in employment fell further in December. We have discussed this previously as a potential “canary in the coal mine” for broader labour market conditions

8. Overall underutilisation in Australia’s labour market is trending higher, which will eventually weigh on wages growth

9. Falling inflation expectations in Australia should also take some upward pressure off wages growth