ONLY CHARTS #270

Aus labour market

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1. Australia’s unemployment rate ticked higher as expected to 4.1% in January from 4% in December. The jobless rate has been ~4% for a year.

Employment again rose strongly (+44k m/m; +0.3% m/m) resulting in a rise in the employment-to-population ratio to a record high of 64.55% from 64.48% in December.

The labour force participation rate rose +0.17ppts to 67.32% - a new record high.

The unemployment rate is for now tracking in line with the RBA’s latest forecasts.

2. The ABS noted that “some of the increase in unemployment reflected more people than usual with jobs in January who were waiting to start or return to work“ (so-called “unemployed future starters”).

While this was not as pronounced as it was in January in 2024, 2023 and 2022, the number of unemployed future starters remained high compared with pre-pandemic norms.