ONLY CHARTS #236

NZ Q3 GDP

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Our call for a 75bp RBNZ OCR cut at the 27 November MPC meeting may have been wrong, but the next meeting on 19 February must be feeling a loooooong way away now.

1. New Zealand’s Q3 GDP was much weaker than expected, falling 1% q/q after declining a revised 1.1% q/q in Q2 (prev: -0.2% q/q). GDP fell 1.5% y/y.

As foreshadowed by StatsNZ, there were sizeable upward revisions to GDP in recent years, at least before GDP fell off a cliff.

All measures of New Zealand’s real GDP declined sharply over Q2 and Q3.

2. Domestic demand declined 1% q/q in Q3 and has trended lower for around 2 years.