ONLY CHARTS #231

Aus labour market, Aus population growth

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Wow! Strong Aussie labour force report.

The ABS noted that “[i]n November we saw a higher than usual number of people moving into employment who were unemployed and waiting to start work in October.” It’s possible that this is related to shifting retail patterns, but that’s pure speculation.

While this suggests that some of the measured decline in the unemployment rate in November could be noise/temporary, it shouldn’t detract from what is a strong report.

1. Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in November (in unrounded terms it declined from 4.12% to 3.93%).

Employment rose +35.6k m/m, resulting in a small rise in the employment-to-population ratio from 64.33% to 64.36%.

The labour force participation rate dipped 0.1ppts to 67.0%.

Australia’s unemployment rate is now clearly tracking below the RBA’s latest forecasts, but for the reasons described above we need the December print for clarity.

2. The resilience of Australia’s labour market continues to stand out among peer economies. Employment-to-population ratios have fallen elsewhere, and unemployment rates are typically rising more quickly than in Australia in several economies.