ONLY CHARTS #229

Aus GDP & ULC revisions, Aus net immigration, Aus job ads, NZ Truckometer

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1. Today the ABS issued revised estimates for Australia’s non-farm GDP, labour productivity and unit labour costs due to (previously flagged) prior errors in the non-farm GDP calculations.

We typically focus on non-farm aggregates because they matter most for labour market outcomes. Farm output can be volatile, including because of weather conditions.

Well, the ABS revised down non-farm GDP growth significantly from that published last week with errors.

While total real GDP grew +0.8% y/y in Q3, non-farm GDP rose just +0.4% y/y. (Farm GDP grew a robust +18.3% y/y.) Non-farm GDP has grown just +0.2% over the past three quarters!

That is very weak.

Moreover, the trajectory of non-farm GDP now looks flatter than published three months ago. That is quite different to the upward revisions to total GDP. This has occurred because of significant upward revisions to farm GDP.