ONLY CHARTS

Edition #33

1. Australia’s unemployment rate rose 0.15ppts in January to 4.06% alongside a slightly decline in the participation rate to 66.8%.

As noted below, some of this is noise associated with changing behaviour around the turn of the year.

2. Measured employment rose just 0.5k m/m following the sharp 63k m/m decline in December. The employment-to-population ratio fell sharply over November/December to 64.1%

3. The ABS flagged that measured employment was likely artificially depressed, and unemployment inflated, by “a higher than usual number of people who were not employed [in January] but indicated that they had a job”.

Expect some payback in the February numbers.

4. Despite the data volatility, the rise in Australia’s unemployment rate has been well flagged by falling job ads and rising spare capacity as reported by firms

5. Hours worked in Australia fell sharply in January but, as noted by the ABS, this partly reflects a change in leave patterns since before the pandemic - i.e. more people are taking leave and reporting zero hours worked in January

6. Overall labour underutilisation in Australia is rising and is consistent with our expectation that wages growth will soon start to moderate

7. Aussie household inflation expectations were steady in February but the trend lower also points to some moderation in wages growth this year

8. New Zealand’s (provisional) net immigration slowed sharply in the final months of 2023 as departures picked up sharply

9. Kiwis are leaving New Zealand in droves

10. The number of migrant arrivals to New Zealand on work visas has fallen sharply but back to the longer-term trend