ONLY CHARTS #131

Aus labour market flows

Jul 22, 2024

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We have previously highlighted the resilience of Australia’s labour market through the lens of monthly labour force flows data over at our institutional service (check it out below).

Today, we update the key highlights of that analysis.

Antipodean Macro Professional

Aussie Labour Market

The RBA has been clear that a key reason that it has increased its policy interest rate by less than many other central banks is to try and hang on to as much as possible of the improvement in labour market conditions in recent years. The Bank forecasts the unemployment rate rising to just 4.3% - from 4% currently - and flatlining there…

a year ago · Antipodean Macro

1. The share of workers in Australia staying in employment each month has remained very high for young people, but has dipped for those aged 25-64.

Where have they been going?

2. The share of workers moving into unemployment has risen modestly over the past 18 months - except for those aged 15-24 - but remains low in absolute terms.

3. There has been a drift higher since 2020 in the share of workers leaving the labour force in Australia, again the notable exception being young workers.

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