ONLY CHARTS #109

RBA, consumer confidence, NZ vehicle regos, Aus new home sales, NSW Budget, Consolidated Australian budgets & policy decisions

ONLY CHARTS is only available to paid subscribers.

A 7-day free trial is available below. Group discounts are available here.

Antipodean Macro’s in-depth research is available here.

1. The RBA Board left the cash rate unchanged as expected today. Changes to the Board’s statement were, on balance, hawkish, including the highlighted bits below.

While some are pointing to the Q2 CPI released on 31 July as the next pivotal data point, our view is that the monthly CPI for May released on 26 June is key for markets.

Why? The monthly CPIs for the initial two months of the quarter have enabled us to compile very accurate nowcasts for the full quarterly CPI - including on a trimmed mean basis - in recent quarters. Stay tuned for our bottom-up analysis next week.

2. Australia, New Zealand and China have some of the weakest consumer confidence (relative to average) going around.