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1. The final reading for Australia’s April composite PMI was revised up modestly to 50.4.

2. The ABS’ nominal household spending indicator (HSI) rose +1.6% m/m and +6.3% y/y in March. Nominal spending in Q1 grew +1.0% q/q.

Excluding transport-related spending, the HSI rose +0.9% m/m in March and +0.8% q/q in Q1 in nominal terms.

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1. Melbourne Institute’s trimmed mean inflation gauge again rose solidly in April (+0.5% m/m) and picked up a little in 3m/3m terms (both using our seasonal adjustment).

2. Directionally, Melbourne Institute’s trimmed mean inflation measure provided a good steer on official quarterly trimmed mean inflation in Q1.

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1. Dwelling price growth in Australia slowed further over April to just +0.3% m/m in original and seasonally adjusted terms according to Cotality.

2. Dwelling price growth has slowed amid a moderation in households’ appetite to buy housing and rising interest rates.

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1. Housing credit in Australia grew +0.6% m/m in March. The investor component remained strongest, growing +0.85% m/m. Owner-occupier housing credit growth picked up to +0.55% m/m.

2. Business credit in Australia continued to grow strongly in March, rising +0.8% m/m and an annualised +9% in 3-month-ended terms.

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Today’s Aussie CPI confirmed that underlying inflation remained robust in early 2026. While quarterly trimmed mean inflation of +0.8% q/q was a bit softer than expected, prior revisions meant it was in line with the RBA’s forecast in year-ended terms.

Despite prevailing uncertainty regarding the Middle East stand-off, we expect the RBA Board to increase the cash rate next week.

1. Australia’s monthly CPI in March rose +1.1% m/m in both original and seasonally adjusted terms. This was in line with our nowcast in seasonally adjusted terms and slightly softer in original terms.

Headline inflation was +1.4% q/q in Q1 and +1.3% q/q post seasonal adjustment.

As expected, automotive fuel (+33% m/m) contributed 1ppt to monthly headline inflation in March. The main downside surprise relative to our nowcast was the volatile holiday travel & accommodation category (-1.4% m/m).

Year-ended CPI inflation was +4.6% y/y, up from +3.7% y/y in February. (Our nowcast was +4.7% y/y.)

The table below provides more detail on the CPI by key groupings, including on a 3m/3m basis.

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1. Initial estimates suggest that the number of filled jobs in New Zealand rose +0.3% m/m in March. While downward revisions to initial estimates continue, there appears to be a gentle rising trend in jobs.

2. Nevertheless, jobs rose just 0.1% q/q in New Zealand in Q1…

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1. According to SEEK, the number of new online job ads in New Zealand fell 0.7% m/m but remained well above the lows

2. New job ads have risen particularly strongly for regions on New Zealand’s South Island. Auckland has been weakest.

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1. According to SEEK, the number of new online job ads in March fell 0.7% m/m.

We put more emphasis on the Internet Vacancy Index which captures online job ads from multiple websites (and de-duplicates).

2. The ratio of job applicants to job ads on SEEK in Australia ticked higher in February but remained well below the peak.

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1. New Zealand’s Q1 CPI inflation was +0.9% q/q and +3.1% y/y.

This was higher than our nowcast of +0.8% q/q and +2.9% y/y. The RBNZ’s updated nowcast was +3.0% y/y.

Non-tradables inflation was in line with our estimate and only slightly higher than the long-run average in quarterly seasonally adjusted terms.

Stronger-than-expected price rises for some tradable items and pharmaceutical products drove most of the ‘miss’ relative to our nowcast.

Prices for pharmaceutical products rose +17.7% q/q - driven by an increase in prescription charges - and contributed +0.12ppts to quarterly headline inflation.

StatsNZ noted that “the prescription count for the prescription subsidy scheme reset on 1 February 2026, meaning households who had previously exceeded the 20-prescription threshold, and were receiving free prescriptions, now had to pay the prescription co-payment.” While we knew this was coming, the size of the increase caught us off guard.

In addition to pharmaceutical products, the largest contributions to quarterly headline inflation in seasonally adjusted terms were: petrol & other vehicle fuels (+0.1ppts); food (+0.16ppts; known); household energy (+0.1ppts; known) and jewellery & watches (+0.05ppts; higher gold prices).

Our measure of quarterly trimmed mean inflation rose a little in Q1 and suggested that underlying inflation remained contained, though remained above the 2% target mid-point (see below).

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1. Average retail petrol prices in Australia declined again over the past week reflecting both lower oil prices and the fuel excise cuts.

2. The number of external company administrations in Australia remained elevated in March.

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1. Food prices in New Zealand (19% CPI weight) fell 0.6% m/m in March in original terms and declined 0.2% m/m post seasonal adjustment.

Falling global food prices are likely to be weighing on New Zealand’s food price inflation.

2. Kiwi food prices rose nearly +1.5% q/q in Q1 in original terms…

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Australia’s labour market report for March was OK, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%. While employment growth was a bit softer than underlying civilian population growth in the month, it was relatively strong in Q1 as a whole. The unemployment rate remains below the RBA’s NAIRU estimate.

1. Australia’s unemployment rate was little changed at 4.3% in March (in unrounded terms it fell slightly from 4.28% to 4.26%)…

…and most evidence point to tight conditions overall.

2. The unemployment rate in Q1 averaged 4.2% which was a little below the RBA’s February SMP forecast of circa 4.25%.

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1. The number of net permanent and long-term arrivals to Australia declined in February, including in 3-month average terms. While this measures people’s stated intentions upon entering and leaving Australia, it recently hasn’t proven to be a good proxy for the official measure of net immigration.

2. Timely data on growth in the number of temporary visa holders in Australia has been a better guide to trends in Australia’s official net overseas migration.

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1. New Zealand’s composite PMI fell for the third consecutive month in March to 46.8 mostly on weakness in the services component.

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*** I will be in New York next week from 13-16 April. Reach out if you would like to catch up ***

1. New Zealand’s manufacturing PMI remained resilient in March despite dipping modestly to 53.2.

2. The RBNZ’s latest nowcast for New Zealand’s Q1 GDP growth remained at +0.6% q/q.

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*** I will be in New York next week from 13-16 April. Reach out if you would like to catch up ***

1. ANZ’s New Zealand Truckometer index declined noticeably in March for light vehicles, possibly due to reduce travel amid higher fuel prices.

2. The kiwi Truckometer indices improved in Q1 and, like more complicated composite indicators, point to solid growth in the quarter.

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1. The number of dwelling commencements in Australia rose +8% q/q in Q4 2025 to an annualised 214k.

Detached house starts dipped a little in Q4 while higher-density starts rose nearly +20% q/q.

2. The number of dwellings actually completed in Australia in Q4 2025 fell 1.7% q/q to an annualised 174k. Fewer completed detached houses accounted for more than all of the decline in total completions.

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*** I will be in New York next week from 13-16 April. Reach out if you would like to catch up ***

1. The final reading for Australia’s composite PMI was revised down to a very weak 46.6 in March. We find it difficult to believe that this accurately reflects economic activity in March.

2. Melbourne Institute’s trimmed mean inflation gauge rose solidly in March but slowed further in 3m/3m terms.

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1. Australia’s merchandise trade surplus widened $3.43b in February to $5.69b. Nominal exports jumped +4.9% m/m and imports fell 3.2% m/m. The A$ TWI appreciated +3.3% m/m in February.

2. Australia’s resources exports (ex gold) fell 4.1% m/m in February to the lowest level since February 2021. In contrast, non-monetary gold exports jumped almost 30% m/m to a new record (the gold price fell 2.6% m/m in A$ terms in February).

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1. Dwelling price growth in Australia remained solid on a nationwide basis in February at +0.7% m/m according to Cotality. Seasonally adjusted price growth slowed further to +0.5% m/m.

2. Dwelling price growth has slowed amid a moderation in households’ appetite to buy housing.

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