Antipodean Macro

ONLY CHARTS #591

Thu, 18 Jun 2026 02:20:24 GMT

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1. The number of new job ads advertised on SEEK in Australia fell 2.3% m/m in May. SEEK’s series has clearly been the weakest across the suite of job ads measures for Australia.

2. The ratio of job applications to job ads on SEEK in Australia declined again in April (published with a one-month lag).

ONLY CHARTS #590

Antipodean Macro — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 00:43:35 GMT

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1. New Zealand’s real GDP rose +0.8% q/q and +1.5% y/y in Q1.

Quarterly GDP growth was a bit softer than the RBNZ’s May MPS forecast of +1.0% q/q.

But upward revisions meant that the level of GDP in Q1 was actually higher than the RBNZ anticipated and year-ended growth of +1.5% y/y was 0.3ppts stronger than expected.

2. Real output rose in Q1 in 9 of 16 industries, with manufacturing showing the strongest growth of +1.5% q/q. That supported output growth of +0.4% q/q in goods-producing industries. Services output rose +0.5% q/q (and +2.0% y/y) and primary value-added declined 0.5% q/q.

As expected, published GDP growth was stronger than estimates using indirect seasonal adjustment (i.e. seasonally adjusting the components and then aggregating). The residual - the seasonal adjustment balancing item - contributed a little more than 0.2ppts to quarterly GDP growth.

ONLY CHARTS #589

Antipodean Macro — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 01:07:02 GMT

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2. The CBA HSI rose +1.7% in 3m/3m terms in May.

ONLY CHARTS #588

Antipodean Macro — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 03:36:13 GMT

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2. The share of employers in Australia actively recruiting has softened in recent months, sending a similar signal to the NAB employment index.

ONLY CHARTS #587

Antipodean Macro — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 00:18:08 GMT

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2. In 3m/3m terms, food price inflation in New Zealand slowed a little to +0.4% in May (post seasonal adjustment).

While grocery inflation had slowed noticeably in 3m/3m terms, it picked up solidly in monthly terms in April (+0.7% m/m) and May (+1.0% m/m).

ONLY CHARTS #586

Antipodean Macro — Sun, 14 Jun 2026 23:58:13 GMT

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2. New Zealand’s composite PMI is at the bottom of the pack of other advanced economies.

ONLY CHARTS #585

Antipodean Macro — Fri, 12 Jun 2026 03:13:48 GMT

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2. Preliminary estimates suggest that New Zealand’s net immigration was little changed in April. Recent estimates were again revised lower.

ONLY CHARTS #584

Antipodean Macro — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 01:42:54 GMT

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2. The RBA will be closely watching whether the increase in inflation expectations feeds through to higher wage demands. (We are sceptical that there will be much spillover.)

ONLY CHARTS #583

Antipodean Macro — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 02:42:04 GMT

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2. Average advertised residential rents in New Zealand have fallen since the peak in 2024 but appear to be flattening out.

ONLY CHARTS #582

Antipodean Macro — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 02:17:01 GMT

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2. Australians’ perceptions of their own finances versus a year ago fell in June to also nearly retest the most recent low in April.

ONLY CHARTS #581

Antipodean Macro — Fri, 05 Jun 2026 02:53:08 GMT

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Detailed data also showed a sharp fall in the share of Australian workers on reduced hours for economic reasons in April. That looks like an anomaly and we expect a bounce back in May (and fall in average hours worked).

2. According to the Labour Account, the number of filled jobs in Australia rose +0.6% q/q and +1.9% y/y in Q1. The number of main and secondary jobs both grew +0.6% q/q.

The number of employed persons (+0.7% q/q) and hours worked (+0.9% q/q) both increased in Q1.

3. The number of non-market sector - health, education & public administration - filled jobs in Australia increased +0.6% q/q and +2.1% y/y in Q1. Market-sector filled jobs rose +0.6% q/q and +1.8% y/y.

Hours worked rose faster in Australia’s market sector than the non-market sector in the quarter (+1% vs +0.5%) and over the year (+2.4% vs +1.9%).

ONLY CHARTS #580

Antipodean Macro — Thu, 04 Jun 2026 03:56:25 GMT

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2. It is likely that Australia’s housing credit growth had topped out prior to the May federal Budget. We expect uncertainty related to the tax measures in the Budget - and tighter monetary policy - to weigh on credit growth in coming months.

ONLY CHARTS #579

Antipodean Macro — Wed, 03 Jun 2026 05:35:36 GMT

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Quarterly growth in both GDP and underlying household consumption was soft. Unit labour cost growth has moderated and remained a touch over 3% y/y which will be welcomed by the RBA despite ongoing weak productivity growth.

1. Australia’s GDP rose +0.3% q/q and +2.5% y/y in Q1, slightly softer than our nowcast of +0.4% q/q. Revisions were minimal.

The RBA had pencilled in +0.4% q/q and +2.6% y/y for Q1 in the May SMP - not too far off.

Both year-ended and 2-quarter-annualised GDP growth (+2.3%) remained above the estimated ~2% potential of the Australian economy.

2. Quarterly growth in most GDP expenditure components was similar to our expectations, except household consumption growth (+0.5% q/q) which was a little softer than we anticipated.

ONLY CHARTS #578

Antipodean Macro — Wed, 03 Jun 2026 02:20:14 GMT

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Quarterly GDP growth was soft. Underlying household consumption growth was also soft. Unit labour cost growth has moderated and remained a touch over 3% y/y which will be taken as a win by the RBA.

1. Australia’s GDP rose +0.3% q/q and +2.5% y/y in Q1, slightly softer than our nowcast of +0.4% q/q. Revisions were minimal.

The RBA had pencilled in +0.4% q/q and +2.6% y/y for Q1 in the May SMP.

2. Quarterly growth in most GDP expenditure components was similar to our expectations. Household consumption growth was a little softer than anticipated.

ONLY CHARTS #577

Antipodean Macro — Tue, 02 Jun 2026 23:33:59 GMT

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2. New Zealand’s goods terms of trade appears to have declined in Q1 but remained at a high level.

ONLY CHARTS #576

Antipodean Macro — Tue, 02 Jun 2026 03:23:55 GMT

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1. Public demand (ex asset transfers) in Australia rose just +0.1% q/q in Q1 following relatively strong growth in the prior two quarters.

ONLY CHARTS #575

Antipodean Macro — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 01:41:09 GMT

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2. Directionally, Melbourne Institute’s trimmed mean inflation measure has recently provided a good steer on official quarterly trimmed mean inflation.

ONLY CHARTS #574

Antipodean Macro — Fri, 29 May 2026 02:49:19 GMT

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Kiwi firms’ reported that activity compared with a year ago dipped a little lower in May but remained elevated.

ONLY CHARTS #573

Antipodean Macro — Thu, 28 May 2026 03:08:03 GMT

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The ABS noted that capex on data centres was very strong in the quarter.

2. Total private machinery & equipment capex, which is an input to GDP calculations, rose a whopping +18.1% q/q in real terms in Q1.

ONLY CHARTS #572

Antipodean Macro — Wed, 27 May 2026 03:50:35 GMT

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The sharp rise in engineering construction was in mining-related work in Western Australia. It is likely that this largely reflects the “bolting on” of modules arriving for LNG projects under construction rather than actual construction activity in the quarter. The equivalent national accounts measure is unlikely to be as strong.

Residential construction work done fell 0.6% q/q and but rose +5.6% y/y. New home building declined 1.3% q/q, with detached house building falling 3.3% q/q and higher-density home building growing 1.7% q/q, consistent with trends in building approvals.

Antipodean Macro

ONLY CHARTS #591

1. The number of new job ads advertised on SEEK in Australia fell 2.3% m/m in May. SEEK’s series has clearly been the weakest across the suite of job ads measures for Australia.

2. The ratio of job applications to job ads on SEEK in Australia declined again in April (published with a one-month lag).

ONLY CHARTS #590

1. New Zealand’s real GDP rose +0.8% q/q and +1.5% y/y in Q1.

Quarterly GDP growth was a bit softer than the RBNZ’s May MPS forecast of +1.0% q/q.

But upward revisions meant that the level of GDP in Q1 was actually higher than the RBNZ anticipated and year-ended growth of +1.5% y/y was 0.3ppts stronger than expected.

2. Real output rose in Q1 in 9 of 16 industries, with manufacturing showing the strongest growth of +1.5% q/q. That supported output growth of +0.4% q/q in goods-producing industries. Services output rose +0.5% q/q (and +2.0% y/y) and primary value-added declined 0.5% q/q.

As expected, published GDP growth was stronger than estimates using indirect seasonal adjustment (i.e. seasonally adjusting the components and then aggregating). The residual - the seasonal adjustment balancing item - contributed a little more than 0.2ppts to quarterly GDP growth.

ONLY CHARTS #589

1. CBA’s household spending indicator (HSI) rose +0.2% m/m in May. This tracks nominal spending using CBA-observed electronic payments.

2. The CBA HSI rose +1.7% in 3m/3m terms in May.

ONLY CHARTS #588

1. Aussie firms reported a sharp easing in recruitment difficulties in May, though the series is volatile. The number of jobs vacant for longer than 1 month has also trended a little lower in recent months.

2. The share of employers in Australia actively recruiting has softened in recent months, sending a similar signal to the NAB employment index.

ONLY CHARTS #587

1. Food prices in New Zealand rose +1.0% m/m and +3.2% y/y in original terms in May. Seasonally adjusted food prices also rose +1.0% m/m.

2. In 3m/3m terms, food price inflation in New Zealand slowed a little to +0.4% in May (post seasonal adjustment).

While grocery inflation had slowed noticeably in 3m/3m terms, it picked up solidly in monthly terms in April (+0.7% m/m) and May (+1.0% m/m).

ONLY CHARTS #586

1. New Zealand’s composite PMI - the PCI - fell modestly in May to a still-weak 4. The new orders component declined to 4.

2. New Zealand’s composite PMI is at the bottom of the pack of other advanced economies.

ONLY CHARTS #585

1. New Zealand’s manufacturing PMI dipped modestly to 49.9 in May.

2. Preliminary estimates suggest that New Zealand’s net immigration was little changed in April. Recent estimates were again revised lower.

ONLY CHARTS #584

1. Australians’ inflation expectations remained elevated in June despite falling a little.

2. The RBA will be closely watching whether the increase in inflation expectations feeds through to higher wage demands. (We are sceptical that there will be much spillover.)

ONLY CHARTS #583

1. New Zealand’s ANZ Truckometer indices both rose in May using our seasonally adjusted series which are less volatile than ANZ’s published series.

2. Average advertised residential rents in New Zealand have fallen since the peak in 2024 but appear to be flattening out.

ONLY CHARTS #582

1. Measures of consumer sentiment in Australia remained very weak in early June. The monthly measure released today declined in June to nearly retest the most recent low in April.

2. Australians’ perceptions of their own finances versus a year ago fell in June to also nearly retest the most recent low in April.

ONLY CHARTS #581

1. Remember that big spike in average hours worked in the Aussie labour force survey in April? At the time, we suggested it was largely related to the timing of the Easter holidays.

Detailed data also showed a sharp fall in the share of Australian workers on reduced hours for economic reasons in April. That looks like an anomaly and we expect a bounce back in May (and fall in average hours worked).

2. According to the Labour Account, the number of filled jobs in Australia rose +0.6% q/q and +1.9% y/y in Q1. The number of main and secondary jobs both grew +0.6% q/q.

The number of employed persons (+0.7% q/q) and hours worked (+0.9% q/q) both increased in Q1.

3. The number of non-market sector - health, education & public administration - filled jobs in Australia increased +0.6% q/q and +2.1% y/y in Q1. Market-sector filled jobs rose +0.6% q/q and +1.8% y/y.

Hours worked rose faster in Australia’s market sector than the non-market sector in the quarter (+1% vs +0.5%) and over the year (+2.4% vs +1.9%).

ONLY CHARTS #580

1. Housing credit growth in Australia remained strong in April at +0.64% m/m. Investor housing credit growth strengthened a little to +0.93% m/m while owner-occupier housing credit growth slowed a bit to just under +0.5% m/m.

2. It is likely that Australia’s housing credit growth had topped out prior to the May federal Budget. We expect uncertainty related to the tax measures in the Budget - and tighter monetary policy - to weigh on credit growth in coming months.

ONLY CHARTS #579

This is a more detailed wrap of today’s Q1 national accounts following our earlier snapshot.

Quarterly growth in both GDP and underlying household consumption was soft. Unit labour cost growth has moderated and remained a touch over 3% y/y which will be welcomed by the RBA despite ongoing weak productivity growth.

1. Australia’s GDP rose +0.3% q/q and +2.5% y/y in Q1, slightly softer than our nowcast of +0.4% q/q. Revisions were minimal.

The RBA had pencilled in +0.4% q/q and +2.6% y/y for Q1 in the May SMP - not too far off.

Both year-ended and 2-quarter-annualised GDP growth (+2.3%) remained above the estimated ~2% potential of the Australian economy.

2. Quarterly growth in most GDP expenditure components was similar to our expectations, except household consumption growth (+0.5% q/q) which was a little softer than we anticipated.

ONLY CHARTS #578

This is a snapshot of key takeaways from today’s Q1 national accounts for Australia. A full briefing will follow.

Quarterly GDP growth was soft. Underlying household consumption growth was also soft. Unit labour cost growth has moderated and remained a touch over 3% y/y which will be taken as a win by the RBA.

1. Australia’s GDP rose +0.3% q/q and +2.5% y/y in Q1, slightly softer than our nowcast of +0.4% q/q. Revisions were minimal.

The RBA had pencilled in +0.4% q/q and +2.6% y/y for Q1 in the May SMP.

2. Quarterly growth in most GDP expenditure components was similar to our expectations. Household consumption growth was a little softer than anticipated.

ONLY CHARTS #577

1. Partial data point to solid growth in New Zealand’s goods export volumes in Q1. Goods import volumes also appear to have risen solidly in the quarter but the partial indicator is less reliable than for exports.

2. New Zealand’s goods terms of trade appears to have declined in Q1 but remained at a high level.

ONLY CHARTS #576

Following the release of final partial Aussie GDP indicators today we expect Q1 GDP growth to have been +0.4% q/q, in line with the +0.4% q/q and +2.6% y/y pencilled in by the RBA in the May SMP.

1. Public demand (ex asset transfers) in Australia rose just +0.1% q/q in Q1 following relatively strong growth in the prior two quarters.

ONLY CHARTS #575

1. Melbourne Institute’s trimmed mean inflation gauge dipped a little in May but that followed a strong rise in April. It strengthened again in 3m/3m terms (both using our seasonal adjustment).

2. Directionally, Melbourne Institute’s trimmed mean inflation measure has recently provided a good steer on official quarterly trimmed mean inflation.

ONLY CHARTS #574

1. ANZ’s May survey of businesses in New Zealand revealed a partial bounce-back in firms’ activity outlook.

Kiwi firms’ reported that activity compared with a year ago dipped a little lower in May but remained elevated.

ONLY CHARTS #573

1. Real private capex in Australia rose +6.5% q/q and +14.6% y/y in Q1. Non-mining capex grew +8.8% q/q and mining capex was unchanged.

The ABS noted that capex on data centres was very strong in the quarter.

2. Total private machinery & equipment capex, which is an input to GDP calculations, rose a whopping +18.1% q/q in real terms in Q1.

ONLY CHARTS #572

1. The volume of construction work done in Australia rose a strong +3.4% q/q in Q1. Building construction rose a moderate +0.6% q/q and engineering construction jumped +6.9% q/q.

Residential construction work done fell 0.6% q/q and but rose +5.6% y/y. New home building declined 1.3% q/q, with detached house building falling 3.3% q/q and higher-density home building growing 1.7% q/q, consistent with trends in building approvals.

Home building was particularly weak in Victoria in Q1.

2. The volume of renovations activity in Australia rose a strong +3.7% q/q in Q1 and growth in Q4 was revised up materially.